66 forecasters

Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer?

14%chance

14%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 14% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 19, 2018

Closes:

Aug 1, 2018

Resolved:

Sep 30, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 20, 2018

Natural Sciences

2018 Leaderboard

After 10 years of black hole science, Stephen Hawking proven right

NPR Online News•Sep 11, 2025

Black hole collision confirms decades-old predictions by Einstein and Hawking

CNN•Sep 11, 2025

Gravitational waves finally prove Stephen Hawking's black hole theorem

New Scientist•Sep 10, 2025

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