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Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer?

The gravitational-wave detector known as LIGO is in serious effect. Since September 2015, it has detected 5 black hole mergers and one (amazing) merger of two distant neutron stars.

For the wonks in the audience, this link gives technical specs on all the confirmed LIGO events to date.

Here's what's interesting, though. The last merger announcement took place last November... about an event called GW170608 that was detected over a year ago.

Unless the LIGO skeptics have a point have a point, we should get some fresh new mergers in the hopper any day now. Right?

Will a gravitational wave observatory officially announce the discovery of a 6th black hole-black hole merge by the end of summer 2018 (September 22, 2018)?

Resolution is by positive appearance at the above-linked detection list


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.