Question

Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?

Resolved:No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters194

Community Prediction

15%

(5% - 21%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

64.2

Community Peer Score

13.9

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Jun 19, 2018

Closes:

Sep 15, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 19, 2018

Technology

2018 Leaderboard

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

80%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Jun 19, 2018

Closes:

Sep 15, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 19, 2018

Technology

2018 Leaderboard

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

80%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%