20 comments
194 forecasters
Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?
15%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 15% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 19, 2018
Closes:Sep 15, 2018
Resolved:Jan 1, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 19, 2018
Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
4% chance
91
Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?
80% chance
59
By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?
8% chance
124