Metaculus

Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

Pending

This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators.

We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions

{{"myPredictionLabel" | translate}}:

{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions

My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}

Created by: TomL and

co-authors

, {{coauthor.username}}

Make a Prediction

Prediction

On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Categories:

Geopolitics – Armed Conflict

Ukraine

on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

Community prediction hidden {{qctrl.cpHiddenPeriodDurationString()}}, to be revealed on {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}} • The hidden period counts for {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_weight_coverage | percent}} of total coverage • {{qctrl.remainingCoverage() | percent}} coverage remaining

Your submission is now a Draft.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

Pending

You have been invited to co-author this question.

{{qctrl.question.title}}

Make a Prediction

Prediction