653 forecasters

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Mar 23, 2022

Resolved:

Mar 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 25, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

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