Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

Resolved :No

42 comments42

Total Forecasters653

Community Prediction1%

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96.4

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5.9

median 1.0%mean 2.3%

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

America's NATO Ally Warns Ukraine Membership May Trigger World War III

Newsweek•Oct 10, 2024

NATO will start an annual nuclear exercise as Russia threatens Ukraine’s Western backers

Associated Press•Oct 10, 2024

Steadfast Noon: Annual NATO Nuclear Exercise to Start Next Week

Breitbart•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%