Question

Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

Resolved:Yes

149 comments149

Total Forecasters966

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

11.8

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 25, 2022

Russia launches largest airstrike since start of the war, Ukraine officials say

CBS•Jun 29, 2025

Russia Launches Major Ukraine Strike, Hundreds of Drones and Missiles

Breitbart•Jun 29, 2025

Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine underwhelms but Kyiv won’t be celebrating

CNN•Jun 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

52%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

50%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

94%

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 25, 2022

Russia launches largest airstrike since start of the war, Ukraine officials say

CBS•Jun 29, 2025

Russia Launches Major Ukraine Strike, Hundreds of Drones and Missiles

Breitbart•Jun 29, 2025

Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine underwhelms but Kyiv won’t be celebrating

CNN•Jun 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

52%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

50%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

94%