Question

Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

Resolved :Yes

78 comments78

Total Forecasters791

Community Prediction99%

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community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

71.6

Community Peer Score

39.7

median 99.0%mean 94.6%

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

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Resolves:

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

55%

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Comments

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Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Russia is set to lose over 1,000 troops a day through the winter as it fights a war on three fronts: UK MOD

Business Insider•Oct 8, 2024

Russian Invasion Casualties Reach New High, Says London

Breitbart•Oct 8, 2024

Russian casualties have topped 600,000 in Ukraine war, US says

Defense One•Oct 10, 2024

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Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

55%