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Russian Control of Ukrainian Cities by June

Ukraine Conflict

Question

As Russia begins its advance inward toward the capital city of Kyiv, the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces has begun to intensify. While Putin claims he has no intentions to occupy Ukraine militarily, merely to disarm it and purge it of nationalists while installing a pro-Russian government, US intelligence fears further human rights abuses through the installation of war camps.

Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?

This question resolves if at least 3 of 6 major cities in Ukraine thought to be under threat from Russian attack are reported to be under Russian control by June 1, 2022. The six cities include: Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Mariupol, Kherson, and Kharkiv, many of which experienced missile blasts on the night of the invasion on February 23, 2022.

Resolution will be determined through reputable media reports, or reports from the Russian or Ukrainian governments.

In the case of disputed reports, or if

  • The Ukrainian government ceases to exit but the Russian government never admits to controlling these cities;
  • A puppet state is installed in Ukraine such that all the cities are under de-facto Russian control without either party acknowledging this;

Then statements from Permanent UNSC members will be sufficient for resolution as well.

If there is a report issued at any time in the future that declares a city to have fallen before June 2022, even if that report is released after June 2022, it will count toward resolution. If no such reports are available by June 1, 2025 then this question will resolve negatively.

A city is considered fallen if the majority of its raions are under Russian control.

To trigger positive resolution, three cities must be under Russian control simultaneously. This period of simultaneity must last at least 48 hours to count.

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