158 comments

903 forecasters

Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?

2%chance

2%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 2% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Apr 26, 2022

Resolved:

Jun 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 25, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

2022 Leaderboard

NATO could spark all-out war with Russia if it shoots down drones over Ukraine, Moscow warns as Europe bolsters its borders amid invasion fears

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2025

Russia kills 4 in heavy blitz on Donetsk, Ukraine as Kremlin all but dashes hope of resuming peace talks

New York Post•Sep 14, 2025

Ukraine Launches Drone Barrage on Russian Oil Refinery

Newsweek•Sep 14, 2025

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