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Russia Recognizes Transnistria in 2022

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In February 2022 Putin signed a decree recognizing Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) as independent territories. Transnistria is an unrecognised breakaway state in Moldova. Russian is the main official language of the Transnistrian government, and the 2015 census found 29% of the population were ethnically Russian.

Varying degrees of Russian military presence have been in Transnistria since 1992. The Moldovan government has repeatedly requested the removal of Russian troops from the territory, including as recently as september 2021. Ukranians Intelligence believes that Russia is planning a false-flag operation in Transnistria (according to Al Jazeera in January 14, 2022).

Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?

This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 to December 31, 2022, the Russian Federation formally recognizes a soveriegn government in Transnistrian territory, independent from a Moldovan government. For the purposes of this question, "Transnistria" will be any government whose capital is within Transnistria's de jure territory in 2014, but this territory need not have the same borders or any minimum amount of controlled or claimed territory.

This question will resolve according to official statements by the Russian Federation.


February 27, 2022 - casens: added additional clarification on Russia "officially recognizing" Transnistria.


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