On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat. China could be one of its successors.
As the Good Food Institute states:
"A National Key R&D Program titled “Green Biological Manufacturing” was launched by China’s Ministry of Science and Technology in late 2020. Plant-based and cultivated meat manufacturing are among the 20+ research projects supported by this grant, which will unleash a reported 600 million RMB ($93M USD) in funding. It is estimated that around 20 million RMB of that will be specifically aimed at developing alternative protein."
People in China consumed 86 million tonnes of meat in 2020, about 30% of global demand. Thus we ask:
Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?
This question resolves positively if China approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before January 1, 2024. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.
For a product to be deemed a "cultivated meat product", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).
Resolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.
The prediction for a similar question (with a deadline of April 2023) is 52% at the time this question is launched.
Similar question on Metaculus: By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?