The Union State, officially the Union State of Russia and Belarus is a supranational organization consisting of Russia and Belarus. The Union State is ruled through the Supreme State Council with the current president Alexander Lukashenko.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine could possibly lead to the installation of a government interested in joining the Union State.
Will Ukraine join the Union State by 2023?
Resolution will be based on the official report/statement of the Union State. This question will resolve positively if any government that has had de facto control over at least 30% of the Ukrainian population for at least 1 month at time of resolution, joins the Union State before January 1, 2023.
We will use this metric for defining the population:
"On 1 January 2022 the total population of Ukraine was estimated to be 41,167,336 excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, which were annexed by Russia in 2014."
De facto control is defined by: "the area that its government is actually able to enforce its laws in, and to defend against encroachments by other countries that may also claim the same territory de jure. The Durand Line is an example of a de facto boundary."