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US Democracy Index

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When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Current estimate

22 Nov 2025

35 comments

118 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

25%chance

47% this week

15 comments

46 forecasters

What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies?

METAresult: 51.242B $

MSFTresult: 77.673B $

TSLAresult: 28.095B $

16 comments

44 forecasters

What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies?

METAresult: 1.05 $

MSFTresult: 3.72 $

TSLAresult: 0.39 $

3 comments

48 forecasters

What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025?

2 comments

46 forecasters

What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025?

1 comment

8 forecasters

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

15%chance

26% this week

8 comments

44 forecasters

What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?

Current estimate

159B $

6 comments

6 forecasters

What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars?

2 comments

47 forecasters

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies?

What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies?

What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025?

What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025?

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?

What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars?

What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025?

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies?

What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies?

What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025?

What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025?

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?

What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars?

What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025?