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Which party will lead the next German government?

Forecast revealed in 10 hours

What percentage of seats will the PAP win in the next Singaporean general election?

result89.69%

[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Who will be the CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor in the next German federal election?

Friedrich Merzresult: Yes
Markus Söderresult: No
Hendrik Wüstresult: No
and 2 others

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

93%chance
3% this week

Which party will hold a plurality in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?

Key Factor

Spreading of Deepfakes

Democrats78.6%
Republicans21.3%
Other0.1%

Key Factor

Spreading of Deepfakes

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Nikki Haleyresult: No
Ron DeSantisresult: No
and 14 others

What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024?

This question is closed for forecasting.
Latest Community predictions were:

% Democrats Voting-by-Mail53.9
% Republicans Voting-by-Mail22.7

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Other46.3%
Gavin Newsom13.6%
Josh Shapiro10.9%
and 5 others

Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?

19%chance
4% this week