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0
comments
14
forecasters
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
0
comments
14
forecasters
Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?
0
comments
13
forecasters
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the Senate after the 2026 elections?
Current estimate
1.46 seats
0
comments
12
forecasters
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
Current estimate
-3.44 seats
7
comments
12
forecasters
What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Latest estimate
14.8 pp
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
7
forecasters
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?
86%
chance
1
comment
32
forecasters
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
81%
chance
6%
this week
Key Factors
Roberts and Kavanaugh's stance on race policies
Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard (2023)
Ambivalence in oral arguments by Roberts and Barrett
2
comments
12
forecasters
Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?
Jeannette Jara
62.5%
José Antonio Kast
27.5%
Evelyn Matthei
2.5%
5 others
0
comments
34
forecasters
Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?
29%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
77
comments
282
forecasters
Who will be elected President of France in 2027?
Other
38.3%
Édouard Philippe
20.5%
Jordan Bardella
17.7%
6 others
23%
Key Factors
Marine Le Pen, associated with the National Rally, faces legal challenges related to alleged financial irregularities, which could impact her political standing.
Marine Le Pen's National Rally won 31.5% of the votes in the 2024 European Parliament elections, indicating a strong far-right presence that could challenge Macron's legacy in the 2027 presidential election.
Edouard Philippe has announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, stating he is preparing to make 'massive' proposals to the French people.
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