Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will the U.S. Department of Commerce complete a new census before the 2026 midterms?

25%chance

1 comment

45 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara66%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei10%

2 comments

16 forecasters

Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?

7%chance

13% this week

5 comments

156 forecasters

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

97.5%chance

19 comments

120 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections76.5%

Only Virginia15.6%

Only New Jersey4.9%

21 comments

90 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Keir Starmer23%

Andy Burnham15%

Rachel Reeves10%

13 comments

452 forecasters

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Democrats68%

Republicans31.9%

Other0.1%

9 comments

60 forecasters

Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?

The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)72.9%

The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)26.1%

Other1%

1 comment

49 forecasters

Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?

75%chance

10% this week

0 comments

46 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?