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US Democracy Index

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What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Current estimate

-9.61 seats

8 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Latest estimate

14.8 pp

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

15 forecasters

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the Senate after the 2026 elections?

Current estimate

0.928 seats

1 comment

16 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party58.5%

Republican Party41.4%

Other0.1%

4 comments

13 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara65%

José Antonio Kast20%

Evelyn Matthei2.5%

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be the Democratic candidate's Electoral College margin in the 2028 US presidential election?

Current estimate

10.5 votes

22 comments

59 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Keir Starmer23%

Andy Burnham15%

Lisa Nandy10%

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

88%chance

15 comments

135 forecasters

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%chance

15 comments

81 forecasters

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%chance