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Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

25%chance
5% today

How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election?

ANO 201187.5
Civic Democratic Party (ODS)28
Mayors and Independents (STAN)22.5
and 8 others

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

90%chance

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Nikki Haleyresult: No
Ron DeSantisresult: No
and 14 others

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
and 17 others

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
and 17 others

Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

25%chance
8% this week

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

J.D. Vanceresult: Yes
Vivek Ramaswamyresult: No
Donald Trump Jr.result: No
and 26 others

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

12%chance

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes
Joe Bidenresult: No
Gavin Newsomresult: No
and 13 others