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US Democracy Index

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What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Current estimate

16.1 pp

3 comments

7 forecasters

Will the U.S. Department of Commerce complete a new census before the 2026 midterms?

25%chance

1 comment

45 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara44%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei10%

2 comments

16 forecasters

Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?

7%chance

13% this week

5 comments

156 forecasters

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

97.2%chance

19 comments

120 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections78.2%

Only Virginia14.9%

Only New Jersey4.9%

21 comments

91 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Keir Starmer23%

Andy Burnham15%

Rachel Reeves10%

13 comments

452 forecasters

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Democrats68%

Republicans31.9%

Other0.1%

9 comments

60 forecasters

Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?

The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)72.9%

The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)26.1%

Other1%

5 comments

59 forecasters

Which party will win the Virginia gubernatorial election of 2025?

Democrats (Spanberger)95.9%

Republicans (Earl-Sears)4%

Other0.1%