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US Democracy Index

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What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the Senate after the 2026 elections?

Current estimate

1.62 seats

0 comments

10 forecasters

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Current estimate

-4.34 seats

6 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Latest estimate

14.7 pp

This question is closed for forecasting.

12 comments

64 forecasters

Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?

The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)74.2%

The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)24.8%

Other1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 comments

133 forecasters

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

98%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

19 comments

82 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections83.6%

Only Virginia13.4%

Only New Jersey2%

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

32 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

80%chance

8% this week

Key Factors

2 comments

55 forecasters

Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?

80%chance

5% this week

This question is closed for forecasting.

Key Factors

5 comments

73 forecasters

Which party will win the Virginia gubernatorial election of 2025?

Democrats (Spanberger)97.9%

Republicans (Earl-Sears)2%

Other0.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

14 comments

134 forecasters

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%chance