Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

121 forecasters

Hakainde Hichilema receives 65+% in Zambia's 2026 presidential election round 1?

23.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

116 forecasters

Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" referendum?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

100 comments

98 forecasters

Will James P.K. Sangma file his nomination as the NPP can...

resultYes

96 comments

94 forecasters

Will Sergio Fajardo publicly endorse a candidate in Colom...

resultNo

86 comments

85 forecasters

Will the June 2026 Jharkhand Rajya Sabha election be cont...

resultYes

5 comments

14 forecasters

Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" referendum?

resultNo

98 comments

99 forecasters

Will the June 2026 Meghalaya Rajya Sabha election be cont...

resultNo

97 comments

101 forecasters

What share of Armenia’s National Assembly seats will Civil Contract win in the June 2026 parliamenta

Less than 52% of all National Assembly seats14.1%

At least 52% but less than 58% of all National Assembly seats32.1%

At least 58% but less than 64% of all National Assembly seatsresult: Yes

At least 64% but less than two-thirds of all National Assembly seats17.6%

At least two-thirds of all National Assembly seats7.3%

38 comments

37 forecasters

How many candidates will file nominations for the Meghala...

community

1.52 value

result

1 value

0 comments

95 forecasters

Will Maine Gov. Janet Mills publicly endorse Graham Platn...

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

95 forecasters

Will the IEC report more than 250,000 new voter registrat...

40%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

10 forecasters

What will Dems' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on June 14, 2026?

community

6.57%

result

6.4%

6 comments

18 forecasters

Republican Primary for Kentucky 4th District

Thomas Massie92%

Ed Gallreinresult: Yes

Nicole Lee Ethington0.1%

Other0.1%

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will Bass be reelected LA Mayor in 2026?

50%chance

16 comments

92 forecasters

Which party will win the Makerfield by-election?

Conservative Party0.1%

Labour Party84.1%

Reform UK15.3%

Restore Britain0.2%

3 others

Key Factors

huffingtonpost.co.uk:
9 Of The Most Shocking Unearthed Comments From Reform's Makerfield Candidate
Restore Britain splits right-wing vote

19 comments

79 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Chad Bianco0.1%

Steve Hilton2%

Katie Porter0.1%

Xavier Becerra97.6%

4 others

0 comments

4 forecasters

Hakainde Hichilema receives 65+% in Zambia's 2026 presidential election round 1?

50%chance

0 comments

110 forecasters

Will Reform UK win the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on June 18, 2026?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

7 forecasters

On July 8, 2026, will Marine Le Pen be ineligible to run in 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

%chance

0 comments

4 forecasters

Will the Liberal Party nominate Flávio Bolsonaro before August 15, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

%chance

0 comments

103 forecasters

What percentage of the vote will Reform UK receive in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on 18

Latest estimate

41.2%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Which SCOTUS Justices will side with Monsanto in Monsanto Co v. Durnell?

85%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Which SCOTUS Justices will side with Monsanto in Monsanto Co v. Durnell?

64%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

90 forecasters

Which SCOTUS Justices will side with Monsanto in Monsanto Co v. Durnell?

65%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.