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4
comments
49
forecasters
How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?
Current estimate
74.2 People
Key Factors
UK has received 57 people under the deal
94 migrants already sent to France, the number keeps increasing
4
comments
3
forecasters
Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?
74%
chance
13
comments
58
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
6.2%
chance
8.8%
this week
Key Factors
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
3
comments
1
forecaster
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
70%
chance
4
comments
19
forecasters
Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?
12%
chance
43
comments
130
forecasters
Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?
15%
chance
8%
this week
Key Factors
US pledge to bail out Argentina already made
Show of support from Trump is possible
Milei's election victory stabilises peso speculation
11
comments
87
forecasters
How many G20 members will not have recognized the State of Palestine before November 16, 2025?
Five
98.9%
Four
1%
Three or fewer
0.1%
Key Factors
Korea and Japan Depend on US
Israeli atrocity or appearance of same could sway Italian public opinion.
Ceasefire in Gaza
3
comments
5
forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
7%
chance
14%
this week
119
comments
276
forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
40%
chance
20%
this week
Key Factors
Presence of aircraft carrier group in region
Authorized CIA to carry out operations
US in "armed conflict" with narcotrafic and preparing options for strikes
1
comment
27
forecasters
Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?
35%
chance
15%
this week
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