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18
comments
47
forecasters
Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?
10%
chance
Key Factors
President calls relocation a necessity
Single reservoir emptying might trigger partial evacuation
Possible last-minute announcement
22
comments
48
forecasters
What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?
Current estimate
>2193 deaths
139
comments
319
forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
46%
chance
Key Factors
Presence of aircraft carrier group in region
Signs of possible US military action.
US in "armed conflict" with narcotrafic and preparing options for strikes
5
comments
45
forecasters
Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?
7.5%
chance
50
comments
136
forecasters
Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?
24%
chance
9%
this week
Key Factors
US pledge to bail out Argentina already made
Show of support from Trump is possible
Milei's election victory stabilises peso speculation
2
comments
25
forecasters
Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?
33%
chance
13%
this week
6
comments
20
forecasters
Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?
84%
chance
18%
this week
82
comments
1.8k
forecasters
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
2%
chance
Key Factors
Trump's peace plan favors Russia over Ukraine
Most of Trump's plan lacks concrete enforcement
Ukraine likely able to fight through 2026
32
comments
115
forecasters
If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?
48%
chance
82
comments
2.1k
forecasters
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
6%
chance
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