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18 comments
47 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

10%chance

Key Factors

22 comments
48 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate
>2193 deaths
139 comments
319 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

46%chance

Key Factors

5 comments
45 forecasters

Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?

7.5%chance
50 comments
136 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

24%chance
9% this week

Key Factors

2 comments
25 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

33%chance
13% this week
6 comments
20 forecasters

Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?

84%chance
18% this week
82 comments
1.8k forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

2%chance

Key Factors

32 comments
115 forecasters

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

48%chance
82 comments
2.1k forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

6%chance