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15
comments
37
forecasters
What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?
Current estimate
1864 deaths
125
comments
283
forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
45%
chance
5%
this week
Key Factors
Presence of aircraft carrier group in region
Authorized CIA to carry out operations
US in "armed conflict" with narcotrafic and preparing options for strikes
3
comments
58
forecasters
Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?
7%
chance
3%
today
6
comments
49
forecasters
How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?
Current estimate
>75.5 People
Key Factors
UK has received 57 people under the deal
94 migrants already sent to France, the number keeps increasing
44
comments
130
forecasters
Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?
15%
chance
7%
this week
Key Factors
US pledge to bail out Argentina already made
Show of support from Trump is possible
Milei's election victory stabilises peso speculation
5
comments
3
forecasters
Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?
74%
chance
13
comments
58
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
5%
chance
2%
this week
Key Factors
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
1
comment
31
forecasters
Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?
41%
chance
13%
this week
4
comments
20
forecasters
Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?
10%
chance
3
comments
1
forecaster
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
70%
chance
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