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4
comments
15
forecasters
Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?
10%
chance
9
comments
52
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
7%
chance
3%
today
Key Factors
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
2
comments
4
forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%
chance
4
comments
39
forecasters
How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?
Current estimate
65.1 People
Key Factors
UK has received 57 people under the deal
94 migrants already sent to France, the number keeps increasing
Contributed by the
Adjacent
community.
2
comments
3
forecasters
Who will Trump nominate as next Fed Chair?
Judy Shelton
25.9%
Larry Kudlow
25.1%
Kevin Hassett
18.8%
3 others
30%
118
comments
271
forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
50%
chance
15%
this week
Key Factors
Presence of aircraft carrier group in region
Authorized CIA to carry out operations
Increasing tensions with military movements
1
comment
2
forecasters
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?
49%
chance
1
comment
23
forecasters
Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?
25%
chance
8%
this week
11
comments
79
forecasters
How many G20 members will not have recognized the State of Palestine before November 16, 2025?
Five
89.8%
Four
10.1%
Three or fewer
0.1%
Key Factors
Hamas intransigence or visible harm to its own population could harden Italy's position.
3 are former axis members (WW2)
Korea and Japan Depend on US
condition
China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?
13
forecasters
if yes
if no
Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)
50%
50%
Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)
19%
19%
1
0
comments
13
13
forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
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