• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?

resultYes

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Flexibility of video appearances increases likelihood

15%chance
60% this week

Key Factor

Flexibility of video appearances increases likelihood

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

35%chance
15% this week

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

90%chance
40% this week

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

33%chance
12% today

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%chance
6% this week

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

60%chance
5% this week

Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?

Key Factor

soft power gained by inviting new members

5%chance
60% this week

Key Factor

soft power gained by inviting new members

Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?

Key Factor

Potential for Iranian retaliation

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential for Iranian retaliation

What will be the lowest number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz between June 15, 2025 and September 1, 2025?

Forecast revealed in 3 days