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4 comments
49 forecasters

How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?

Current estimate
74.2 People

Key Factors

4 comments
3 forecasters

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

74%chance
13 comments
58 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

6.2%chance
8.8% this week

Key Factors

3 comments
1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

70%chance
4 comments
19 forecasters

Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?

12%chance
43 comments
130 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

15%chance
8% this week

Key Factors

11 comments
87 forecasters

How many G20 members will not have recognized the State of Palestine before November 16, 2025?

Five98.9%
Four1%
Three or fewer0.1%

Key Factors

3 comments
5 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

7%chance
14% this week
119 comments
276 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

40%chance
20% this week

Key Factors

1 comment
27 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

35%chance
15% this week