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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
15 comments
37 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate
1864 deaths
125 comments
283 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

45%chance
5% this week

Key Factors

3 comments
58 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

7%chance
3% today
6 comments
49 forecasters

How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?

Current estimate
>75.5 People

Key Factors

44 comments
130 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

15%chance
7% this week

Key Factors

5 comments
3 forecasters

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

74%chance
13 comments
58 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

5%chance
2% this week

Key Factors

1 comment
31 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

41%chance
13% this week
4 comments
20 forecasters

Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?

10%chance
3 comments
1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

70%chance