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Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?

70%chance
28% this week

Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?

50%chance
10% this week

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.3%chance

When will the first same-sex couple have a child that is produced by the sperm of one parent and the egg of the other?

Jun 2048

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

2%chance

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80%chance

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

63%chance

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

43%chance

Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?

resultYes

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >15% weight loss?

result08 Nov 2023 12:00