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3 comments
55 forecasters

Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?

Current estimate
9.29

Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

11
0 comments
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
92 comments
181 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate
Jan 2031
14 comments
60 forecasters

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

14 comments
44 forecasters

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

29.4%chance

Q4 AI Benchmarking: Bots Are Closing The Gap

10
1111 comments

Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified

13
2727 comments
0 comments
9 forecasters

What will the Metaculus Community Prediction bias on the next 20 AI benchmark questions be?

Latest estimate
0.499

This question is closed for forecasting.

84 comments
166 forecasters

How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates?

Forecast Fridays

34
2929 comments