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112
2985 comments2985
Metaculus Meta

What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Key Factor

small sample size impacts confidence in trends

73.6%
3.8 % this week

Key Factor

small sample size impacts confidence in trends

Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page

1
2 comments2

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?

result2

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

resultNo

Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

10
no comments0
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Suggest questions to launch

121
2748 comments2748
Metaculus Meta

Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

Key Factor

1st place comment writer historically also reliably reaching the prize cap so far

47%chance

Key Factor

1st place comment writer historically also reliably reaching the prize cap so far

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

29.4%chance