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Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?

resultYes

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

45%chance

15% this week

Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?

One or both remain in space beyond August 30result: Yes

Boeingresult: No

SpaceXresult: No

and 2 others

What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years?

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

18%chance

Key Factor

SpaceX has a history of ambitious timelines, such as Elon Musk's claim that uncrewed Starship rockets could be sent to Mars by 2026, with a crewed expedition in 2028, which suggests potential for delays given the complexity of such missions.

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

resultNo

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

0.1%chance

Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?

resultNo