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1
comment
6
forecasters
Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?
3%
chance
2
comments
8
forecasters
Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?
15%
chance
3%
this week
6
comments
54
forecasters
When will Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket complete its first successful test flight?
Latest estimate
29 Mar 2021
This question is closed for forecasting.
17
comments
37
forecasters
When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?
00
34
comments
134
forecasters
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
51%
chance
6%
this week
Key Factors
US Starship program too ambitious for timeline
China making strides in lunar landing efforts
US lunar program setbacks increase China's chances
5
comments
27
forecasters
When will Jeff Bezos first land on the moon?
Current estimate
Jan 2044
2
comments
3
forecasters
When will ≥ 10 operational Golden Dome orbital interceptor satellites be simultaneously in orbit?
Current estimate
Feb 2034
Key Factors
Ballooning cost may delay the program
Future Congress funding cancellation risk
Performance concerns with missile detection
82
comments
626
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
83
comments
115
forecasters
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
00
11
comments
74
forecasters
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?
27%
chance
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