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US Democracy Index

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How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

395%

44.6%

00.1%

1 comment

2 forecasters

When will ≥ 10 operational Golden Dome orbital interceptor satellites be simultaneously in orbit?

Current estimate

Dec 2033

5 comments

59 forecasters

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

12%chance

38% this week

5 comments

97 forecasters

Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?

38%chance

8.2% today

6 comments

8 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate

Jan 2061

2 comments

66 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

4%chance

16% this week

8 comments

16 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft80%

At least one person30%

At least one person—and return them to Earth18%

10 comments

60 forecasters

When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?

Current estimate

16 Nov 2026

1 comment

22 forecasters

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

2%chance

1.8% this week

45 comments

378 forecasters

When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?

Current estimate

Aug 2043