Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?

3%chance

2 comments

8 forecasters

Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?

15%chance

3% this week

34 comments

133 forecasters

Will China land the next person on the Moon?

50%chance

8% this week

Key Factors

8 comments

22 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft85%

At least one person40%

At least one person—and return them to Earth35%

2 comments

3 forecasters

When will ≥ 10 operational Golden Dome orbital interceptor satellites be simultaneously in orbit?

Current estimate

Feb 2034

Key Factors

82 comments

626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

17 comments

37 forecasters

When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?

6 comments

54 forecasters

When will Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket complete its first successful test flight?

Latest estimate

29 Mar 2021

This question is closed for forecasting.

11 comments

74 forecasters

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

27%chance

6 comments

10 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate

Mar 2062