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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

08 Aug 2029

3 comments

4 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

21%chance

1 comment

2 forecasters

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?

49%chance

condition

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

17 comments

150 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

3 comments

5 forecasters

What will be the sector weighting of the Technology and Communication Services Sector in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2027?

Current estimate

0.449%

22 comments

23 forecasters

Who will be the first USD trillionaire?

Elon Musk50.2%

Someone else34.4%

Jeff Bezos5.2%

2 comments

55 forecasters

What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?

Current estimate

97.6 Percent

Key Factors

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

What will be the sector weighting of the Technology and Communication Services Sector in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2027?

Who will be the first USD trillionaire?

What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

What will be the sector weighting of the Technology and Communication Services Sector in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2027?

Who will be the first USD trillionaire?

What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?