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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win77.6%
Nathan Young win18.4%
Other4.1%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

35%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%chance
6% this week

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?

resultYes

How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?

Key Factor

Public support removal impacts pace but not growth

Forecast revealed next week

Key Factor

Public support removal impacts pace but not growth

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12
2 comments2

When will Nvidia's market capitalization surpass $10 trillion?

Jun 2033
18.1 months this week

What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?

66.7%
3.5 % this week