Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?

60%chance

51% this week

45 comments

295 forecasters

Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?

resultNo

0 comments

6 forecasters

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Current estimate

Dec 2035

19 comments

89 forecasters

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary55.2%

Yes, non-adversary owner42.3%

No2.5%

6 comments

16 forecasters

What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?

Epigenetic reprogramming130

Senolytics93

Ozempic82.9

9 comments

1 forecaster

How many American states will have cultivated meat bans on January 20, 2029?

952.6%

819.8%

1019.8%

0 comments

29 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH16%

Microsoft Azure14%

Google Cloud12%

8 comments

40 forecasters

Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026?

European Unionresult: Yes

United Kingdom20%

United States4%

35 comments

175 forecasters

Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?

resultYes

6 comments

16 forecasters

Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?

Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?

How many American states will have cultivated meat bans on January 20, 2029?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026?

Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?

How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?

Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?

Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?

How many American states will have cultivated meat bans on January 20, 2029?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026?

Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?

How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?