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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win71.9%
Nathan Young win25.8%
Other2.3%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

30%chance
7% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?

Key Factor

Public support removal impacts pace but not growth

Forecast revealed in 6 days

Key Factor

Public support removal impacts pace but not growth

How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

77%chance
8% this week

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?

resultYes

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12
2 comments2

When will Nvidia's market capitalization surpass $10 trillion?

Jun 2033
18.1 months this week

What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?

66.1%
4.6 % this week