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0
comments
34
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
30%
Google Cloud
16%
Amazon Web Services
15%
1 other
39
comments
64
forecasters
What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?
2
comments
41
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
5%
1 other
45
comments
170
forecasters
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?
Current estimate
16 Mar 2029
7
comments
58
forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
Gary Marcus win
85%
Nathan Young win
13%
Other
2%
Key Factors
The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner
6
comments
4
forecasters
Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?
74%
chance
2
comments
37
forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
5%
Nvidia
5%
Google
5%
84
comments
629
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
3
comments
2
forecasters
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
60%
chance
10%
this week
11
comments
18
forecasters
When will Nvidia's market capitalization surpass $10 trillion?
Current estimate
Feb 2039
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