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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

2056
Year
1432 percentage points this week

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Gary Marcus win82.4%
Nathan Young win16.5%
Other1%

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, what will be the index value for Labor Productivity for the "Information" sector for the fourth quarter of 2028?

189
productivity

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

29%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?

Key Factor

Public support removal impacts pace but not growth

33.4 GW
3.7 GW this week

Key Factor

Public support removal impacts pace but not growth

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%chance

Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?

resultYes

Will China land the next person on the Moon?

Key Factor

When will China first successfully launch a Long March 10 rocket (need for the moon mission)?

33.3%chance

Key Factor

When will China first successfully launch a Long March 10 rocket (need for the moon mission)?