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0 comments
34 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Amazon Web Services15%
39 comments
64 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

2 comments
41 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
45 comments
170 forecasters

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate
16 Mar 2029
7 comments
58 forecasters

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win85%
Nathan Young win13%
Other2%

Key Factors

6 comments
4 forecasters

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

74%chance
2 comments
37 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%
84 comments
629 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance
3 comments
2 forecasters

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

60%chance
10% this week
11 comments
18 forecasters

When will Nvidia's market capitalization surpass $10 trillion?

Current estimate
Feb 2039