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In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?

resultYes

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services8%
Microsoft Azure7%
and 1 other

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
and 2 others

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services15%
Microsoft Azure15%
and 1 other

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others

On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?

On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?

resultNo

On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?

On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?

Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?

resultNo