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Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
and 2 others

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
and 2 others

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others

The Westinghouse Contingency

3
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?

result4.1851B

Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?

resultYes

Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?

resultYes

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

05 May 2024

AI Pathways Report

17
no comments0