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2 comments
27 forecasters

When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

Current estimate
03 Nov 2025

Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

11
11 comment
3 comments
39 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
61.4%
3 comments
52 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet30.8%
OpenAI24.2%
Anthropic17.6%

🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

5
0 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
2 comments
43 forecasters

Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?

95%chance
35% today
99 comments
292 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

41%chance
6 comments
53 forecasters

Will the EU have an average annual inflation rate of at least 2.5% for any month before December 2025?

99%chance
36% this week
2 comments
100 forecasters

How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?

Latest estimate
5.48 spacecraft

This question is closed for forecasting.

8 comments
63 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

395%
44.6%
00.1%