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Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?

45%chance

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0 comments

89 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Latest estimate

1731 deaths

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13 comments

83 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else69%

Arjun Erigaisi20.7%

Wei Yi9.5%

Key Factors

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will any major Danish civilian airport report a drone-related operational disruption between October 15 and December 31, 2025?

35%chance

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0 comments

86 forecasters

Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?

63.5%chance

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0 comments

87 forecasters

On TRAC’s December 21, 2025 snapshot, will ICE’s total detained population be at least 60,000?

65%chance

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0 comments

99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

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0 comments

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)

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0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.