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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)
4
1
1
comment
12
comments
63
forecasters
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025?
99.9%
chance
91.9%
this week
3
comments
36
forecasters
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Current estimate
64.8%
3
comments
37
forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet
38.3%
OpenAI
23.4%
Anthropic
14.2%
3 others
24%
0
comments
103
forecasters
Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?
31.7%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
104
forecasters
Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?
17.3%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
103
forecasters
Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?
75%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
103
forecasters
Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Wes Streeting)
15%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
98
forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
Latest estimate
46.3%
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
88
forecasters
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
Low
78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)
18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)
3.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
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