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US Democracy Index

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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

1 1 comment

12 comments

63 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025?

99.9%chance

91.9% this week

3 comments

36 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

64.8%

3 comments

37 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet38.3%

OpenAI23.4%

Anthropic14.2%

0 comments

103 forecasters

Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?

31.7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

104 forecasters

Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?

17.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

103 forecasters

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

75%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

103 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Wes Streeting)

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

98 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Latest estimate

46.3%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%

Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%

High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.