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Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

AI safety and timelines

8
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
and 2 others

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
and 2 others

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?

result2

When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

29 Jan 2023

What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?

result1.05