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US Democracy Index

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Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Anish Giri99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Hikaru Nakamura99.8%

5 comments

12 forecasters

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

53%chance

50% this week

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

18 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

11 comments

79 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else73.7%

Arjun Erigaisi20%

Wei Yi5.6%

1 comment

19 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.