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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

2
0 comments
12 comments
62 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025?

99.5%chance
91.5% this week
0 comments
103 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Wes Streeting)

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments
36 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
64.8%
3 comments
37 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet37.1%
OpenAI23.6%
Anthropic14%
0 comments
103 forecasters

Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?

31.7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
104 forecasters

Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?

17.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
103 forecasters

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

75%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
103 forecasters

Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?

25%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
98 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Latest estimate
46.3%

This question is closed for forecasting.