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Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

04 Sep 2029

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%chance

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

80%chance

When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?

result26 Mar 2024 17:30

Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?

resultNo

Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?

36%chance

What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?

result-0.5

By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?

5.9%chance