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Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack?

Released by captorresult: 109
Rescued or escapedresult: 4

Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?

resultNo

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?

resultNo

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

13
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict

Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?

resultYes

What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?

result11

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34%chance

Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?

resultYes