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When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

00

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?

resultNo

Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?

resultNo

In which year will Tesla officially unveil a new passenger vehicle, possibly called the Model 2, priced under $25,000?

Not before 202758.7%
202625.8%
202515.5%
and 1 other

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

resultNo

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

0.2%chance

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

Key Factor

SpaceX has a history of ambitious timelines, such as Elon Musk's claim that uncrewed Starship rockets could be sent to Mars by 2026, with a crewed expedition in 2028, which suggests potential for delays given the complexity of such missions.

22%chance

Key Factor

SpaceX has a history of ambitious timelines, such as Elon Musk's claim that uncrewed Starship rockets could be sent to Mars by 2026, with a crewed expedition in 2028, which suggests potential for delays given the complexity of such missions.

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

35%chance

Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?

resultYes