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1 comment
3 forecasters

When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

Current estimate
03 Nov 2025

Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

9
11 comment
12 comments
67 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025?

99.9%chance
89.9% this week
3 comments
37 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
63.8%
3 comments
38 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet37.3%
OpenAI23.3%
Other14.4%
0 comments
103 forecasters

Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?

31.7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
103 forecasters

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

75%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
103 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Wes Streeting)

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

1
0 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
0 comments
88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.