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Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?

resultNo

What will be the lowest tabulated cost of a teraflop of computing speed in 2018?

Ambiguous

When will one TeraFLOP/s cost <$1?

19 Jul 2029

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

254

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?

resultNo

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

1.6×10¹⁷
FLOPS

What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?

result37.96

Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?

47.2%chance