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Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?

resultNo

In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?

resultYes

Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?

resultNo

Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?

resultNo

If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?

20%chance

Will chess be "weakly solved" by 2035?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

10%chance

If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?

81%chance

[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?

resultNo