• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

23 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?

resultYes

Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?

resultYes

Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?

resultYes

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

resultNo
condition

Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced?

Resolved:No
13 forecasters
if yes
if no

When will GPT5 be announced?

17 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled

When will GPT5 be announced?

22 Jan 2025
4
no comments0
condition

Deepfake Attempt in Major News in 2023

Resolved:Yes
5 forecasters
if yes
if no

When will GPT5 be announced?

25 Aug 2024

When will GPT5 be announced?

10 Aug 2024
Resolved:Annulled
3
no comments0