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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

10
10 comments10
Metaculus Journal Archives

Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018?

resultNo

How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?

result81.137k

What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?

112
people

Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?

resultNo

Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?

4.9%chance

How many charter cities will exist by 2026?

33.4
cities

How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?

11.7
countries

Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022?

Haitiresult: No
El Salvadorresult: No
Nicaraguaresult: No
and 3 others