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Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%
≤3 nm90%
≤2 nm49.4%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

75%chance

The Decarbonization of Heat in the UK

8
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

85%chance

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

36.9%chance

Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?

51.4%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

49%chance

Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?

resultNo

Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?

resultNo

What will be the total value of the green hydrogen/ammonia market in 2050 (in trillions 2021 USD)?

0.976
trillion USD (2021)