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Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

Annulled

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance

When will the first 49+ qubit universal quantum computer be constructed?

Ambiguous

Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?

resultYes

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

80%chance

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

OpenAI GPT-4, not optionalresult: No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optionalresult: No
OpenAI GPT-4, optionalresult: No
and 3 others

Forecasting OWID Commenting Prize Winners

9
3 comments3
Forecasting Our World in Data

Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?

resultNo

Seeing single photons: more research to come?

resultYes