Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

102 forecasters

Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

102 forecasters

Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

17.2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Wei Yi99.9%

0 comments

100 forecasters

Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)

9.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will President Donald J. Trump take legal action against the BBC before 2026?

Trump does not file a lawsuit in the USA or the UK47.4%

Trump files a lawsuit in the USA only36.9%

Trump files a lawsuit in both the USA and the UK9.8%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

88 forecasters

By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will Ariane 6 have conducted at least four launches with liftoff timestamps in calendar year 2025?

75%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

87 forecasters

As of 12:00 UTC on December 31, 2025, is TikTok available for download in both the U.S. Apple App Store and Google Play?

80%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.