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US Democracy Index

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Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else72.3%

Arjun Erigaisi19.8%

Wei Yi7.2%

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

9 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

30%chance

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

89 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Latest estimate

1731 deaths

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

2 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara24%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei15%

0 comments

98 forecasters

Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

87 forecasters

Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.