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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

37.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

93.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
96 forecasters

Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?

72.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?

88%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
96 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)

1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
95 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)

1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
95 forecasters

Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?

3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
93 forecasters

Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?

Neither69.5%
House of Representatives21.1%
Both5%

This question is closed for forecasting.