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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?

resultNo

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?

resultYes

Has new a planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system?

resultNo

Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?

38%chance

Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?

36%chance

Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?

resultNo

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

49%chance

Introducing the Metaculus Journal Podcast

12
no comments0