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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

78%chance
9% this week

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

28%chance

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
and 2 others

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

10
10 comments10
Metaculus Journal Archives

The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems?

resultNo

Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?

result2

Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?

resultNo

Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?

resultNo

Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

5
no comments0
Nuclear Risk Tournament