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2 comments
27 forecasters

When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

Current estimate
03 Nov 2025

Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

11
11 comment
3 comments
39 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
61.4%
3 comments
52 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet30.8%
OpenAI24.2%
Anthropic17.6%

🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

4
0 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Contributed by the Brown University Forecasting Team community.

0 comments
6 forecasters

Will the current ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas hold by the time of our next meeting, October 28, 2025 12pm?

91%chance
37.2% today
2 comments
42 forecasters

Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?

50.4%chance
9.6% today
97 comments
292 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

43%chance
5% this week
0 comments
103 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Wes Streeting)

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments
100 forecasters

How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?

Latest estimate
5.48 spacecraft

This question is closed for forecasting.