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US Democracy Index

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Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else72.3%

Arjun Erigaisi19.8%

Wei Yi7.2%

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

20 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

0 comments

18 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

9 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

30%chance

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

89 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Latest estimate

1731 deaths

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

2 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara24%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei15%