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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance

Will the Japan Self-Defense Forces have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027?

74%chance

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea4%
Saudi Arabia3%
Japan2%
and 6 others

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran66%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

28%chance

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.06
weapons

How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?

result2

By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?

resultNo

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

10
10 comments10
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

1%chance