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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

22%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

5%chance

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.456%

Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?

Annulled

Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?

resultYes

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.171%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%chance

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%chance

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

32%chance

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%chance