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US Democracy Index

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Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

0 comments

3 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara25%

José Antonio Kast38%

Evelyn Matthei15%

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89 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Latest estimate

1731 deaths

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?

45%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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87 forecasters

Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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86 forecasters

Will any major Danish civilian airport report a drone-related operational disruption between October 15 and December 31, 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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86 forecasters

Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?

63.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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87 forecasters

On TRAC’s December 21, 2025 snapshot, will ICE’s total detained population be at least 60,000?

65%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.